Jones

[CentralCABucsFan]

What I was alluding to earlier in this tread is that when Garrett Jones had played well for about a year all the stats pointed to him being a part of our future core and the posts reflected that when there was talk of trading him for M. Izturus.  Now that he is in the worst slump of his major league career, we have the other extreme of posts pointing to him as a big problem.  This stuff evens out over time.

He has had a far greater run of success than Neil Walker has and we are all on the Walker bandwagon today.  Walker's last few minor league seasons could be stated as proof that he won't sustain success.  We can speculate and take sides on players, but we are all just guessing.  

Some players find a way to sustain success or make changes to their game to improve, and some find they can't adjust and they regress.

[VaPirate]

Looking at 1B, there are 26 players who qualify for the batting title.  Jones ranks 25th in OPS.  The only qualified player who has a lower OPS than Jones is Jorge Cantu, who has only played about 1/3 of his games at 1B (the rest at 3B).

In RF there are 25 qualifying players.  Jones ranks 22nd in OPS.  The players behind him are Cody Ross (who has played more CF than right), Ben Zobrist (who plays all over the field), and Jeff Francoeur (who is terrible).

This is why I can't get behind the idea that oh, Jones is just fine, he's not the problem here. I would say those numbers make him a big part of the problem on the offense. Statistically, if you compare him to other regular 1B or RF, he's one of the worst in the league. To have one of the worst at the league at a premium offensive position is a big problem. And it's especially a problem because he's more likely to get worse than better since he's not young anymore. Maybe they aren't going to upgrade there this winter - I'd hope that they at least attempt to find better, which honestly shouldn't be hard - but they have to get a lot better from 1B if they're ever going to be any good. Down the road, we can reasonably expect Cutch and Pedro to be better, and Walker and Tabata to at least continue to produce where they're at. Eventually, hopefully soon, we'll be at a point where internal improvement on offense is minimal so where else do you improve?

This winter I'd try to find someone who can play 1B that can top a .725 OPS (should be very easy) and at least make Jones earn his playing time back. Going into next year with Jones still a prominent member of the lineup is already part of an early surrender.

I've got no problem with the idea that either 1st or RF should be upgraded next year, in fact I very much want Neil to do this next year (one corner and one SP that can make a difference).  But we know there is no way they are going to be able to upgrade both positions.

I'd like to see a Dunn come in.  I think if Jones is not THE GUY he will immediately upgrade over the player he is right now.  It's not Jones' fault that the Pirates have so little power that he has to bat cleanup.  IF Pedro gets major league pitching figured out, and IF the Pirates brought in an Adam Dunn, I think GIJ would be a nice addition to the team and better than what they could otherwise achieve given their payroll limitations.

So, if the Pirates were able to get more from their current lineup (especially Pedro) and add one solid 1st base or RF I think GIJ's role becomes much more appropriate and he becomes a nice piece in the lower lineup.  I guess that's what I mean when I say Garrett is far from the Pirates biggest problem; in my view and can still be a positive on this team given resources.   

[epoc]

I also disagree with the move Pedro to 1B thought.   Pedro hasn't proven anything to me with the stick.  His bat is fine for third, but until he hits better he can't take up a spot that has to produce more.
 

Defense matters, though. Whether or not his offense is okay for third, his defense certainly is not. So you could just as well say the Pedro can't take up a spot (3B) that has to produce more (defensively).

What I was alluding to earlier in this tread is that when Garrett Jones had played well for about a year all the stats pointed to him being a part of our future core and the posts reflected that when there was talk of trading him for M. Izturus.  Now that he is in the worst slump of his major league career, we have the other extreme of posts pointing to him as a big problem.  This stuff evens out over time.

He has had a far greater run of success than Neil Walker has and we are all on the Walker bandwagon today.  Walker's last few minor league seasons could be stated as proof that he won't sustain success.  We can speculate and take sides on players, but we are all just guessing.  

Some players find a way to sustain success or make changes to their game to improve, and some find they can't adjust and they regress.

Walker's a very different story than Jones. The former was a top draft pick and top prospect and is only 24yo. The latter does not have nearly that pedigree. Two months ago, "all of the stats" did not point to Jones being part of our future core, unless by "all" you mean "only those posted at the major league level in the last year." You really have to overlook an awful lot of evidence in order to believe that Garrett Jones is better than a bench player.

[VaPirate]

The impression I get from this thread is that most people aren't thinking seriously about Alvarez moving to first next season. I'm curious about that. It's clear that Alvarez's defense is bad enough that he's going to have to move eventually, and it's also clear that we need a power-hitting 1B. It also just so happens that we have a good 3B (Walker) who can take over for Alvarez. And finally, in the last few offseasons 2B have been the easiest thing to find and get. Johnson, Hudson, and Polanco all signed cheaply last year. So did F Lopez, and we got Iwamura very cheaply, though those two didn't work out as well as expected. All things considered, I think moving Alvarez to 1B for next year is exactly what the Pirates should do.

I don't think this helps.

Moving Pedro to third simply moves the "hole" to 3rd, leaving a more difficult position to fill than 1st.  And moving Neil to 3rd only devalues him IMHO.  He's got the potential to be a big + at 2nd but average or less at third.  Bottomline for me is the Pirates badly need one new corner this off season.

[epoc]

The impression I get from this thread is that most people aren't thinking seriously about Alvarez moving to first next season. I'm curious about that. It's clear that Alvarez's defense is bad enough that he's going to have to move eventually, and it's also clear that we need a power-hitting 1B. It also just so happens that we have a good 3B (Walker) who can take over for Alvarez. And finally, in the last few offseasons 2B have been the easiest thing to find and get. Johnson, Hudson, and Polanco all signed cheaply last year. So did F Lopez, and we got Iwamura very cheaply, though those two didn't work out as well as expected. All things considered, I think moving Alvarez to 1B for next year is exactly what the Pirates should do.

I don't think this helps.

Moving Pedro to third simply moves the "hole" to 3rd, leaving a more difficult position to fill than 1st.  And moving Neil to 3rd only devalues him IMHO.  He's got the potential to be a big + at 2nd but average or less at third.  Bottomline for me is the Pirates badly need one new corner this off season.

Defense matters. You can't just look at Walker's bat and say he's a plus at 2B but average at 3B. He cannot handle 2B defensively, and it costs the team a lot of runs.

[ECBucs]

However, that Walker can be plugged in at second at all is almost a miracle.

he never played there in spring training, instructional league or minors. When he was recalled he was to fill in at third and first.

He is probably not the worst secondbaseman in the league (Uggla probably is) and he has shown potential to improve.

Walker did seem to try to become a good thirdbaseman and there isn't any reason to think that he isn't going to work at second.

The team must think he is better than Delwyn Young at second too.

[epoc]

It's really not a miracle that Walker can physically stand between first base and second base. If you're saying it's a miracle that Walker can play an even marginally adequate 2B, I think you're wrong; he is nowhere close to being adequate at 2B. He's a 3B playing out of position, and it shows. He simply does not have the range for the middle infield. I don't understand why anyone would respond to the fact that a 3B is playing 2B poorly by saying he should get better or that his poor play is adequate. It seems like the only reasonable response would be to move the 3B back to 3B and get a real 2B.

[VaPirate]

It's really not a miracle that Walker can physically stand between first base and second base. If you're saying it's a miracle that Walker can play an even marginally adequate 2B, I think you're wrong; he is nowhere close to being adequate at 2B. He's a 3B playing out of position, and it shows. He simply does not have the range for the middle infield. I don't understand why anyone would respond to the fact that a 3B is playing 2B poorly by saying he should get better or that his poor play is adequate. It seems like the only reasonable response would be to move the 3B back to 3B and get a real 2B.

Personally I would rather have the bigger bat at 2nd and give up some D.  I think he will be an adequate 2nd on defense.  His bat at 3rd will likely wind up average or below.  not a good trade in HMO.

Off to the fights, I mean the game!  (I see Morgan is starting!). 

[CAfan]

Ryne Sandberg had what i perceived as terrible range at 2B (and seemingly never laid out for a ball) yet he is regarded as a great defensive 2Bman because he was sure handed and accurate with his throws.  If Walker can simply be sure handed, not give away bases and make strong accurate turns on the DP then have less range will be ok.  I don't think he costs us many runs at 2B, and he has the athletic ability to improve. 

[bradlej31]

Maybe D'Arnaud could be that 2B.... He's starting there tonight.

[jonathan34]

Jones has certainly not lived up to the expectations .OPS wise; but if we look back at our winter predictions of him; he certainly is producing runs at the clip we expected or predicted from him. Perhaps it's a product of getting the at-bats...but he hasn't flopped in every regard.

[CentralCABucsFan]

Epoc,
while I disagree that a full year of solid stats from Garrett Jones means little, I'm not in love with him either.  I just think players can become something you didn't expect.  Just because it doesn't happen often, doesn't mean it doesn't happen at all.  Besides, my point isn't about how good Jones is, it is about posters making decisions on him after a hot streak or after a cold streak.

Now with regards to Pedro and Walker, I agree that so far they both look to playing out of position.  I think the hope was for some improvement from both during the season, but I'm not seeing it.  I agree that 2nd base seems to be the bargain area the last few years in free agency, and the Pirates should look there to fill 2B and move Walker and Alvarez.

[Dogknot3]

Walker needs to stay at 2B.  His bat is best there.  He should not be the answer at 3B if Alvarez is moved to 1B.  I would rather see Rendon at 3B (good possibility).

When the pitching gets better, the defense will improve too. Aramis Ramirez was never a good 3B on defense but he has stuck there for the Cubs.  Did Ramirez improve his defense or did the Cubs have better pitching?

[epoc]

Walker needs to stay at 2B.  His bat is best there.  He should not be the answer at 3B if Alvarez is moved to 1B.  I would rather see Rendon at 3B (good possibility).

When the pitching gets better, the defense will improve too. Aramis Ramirez was never a good 3B on defense but he has stuck there for the Cubs.  Did Ramirez improve his defense or did the Cubs have better pitching?

Why not move Steve Pearce to SS then? His bat might not be good enough for 1B, but he'll be the best SS in the league. When we finally get that pitching staff that allows nothing but pop flies and weak comebackers to the mound, we'll be the best team in baseball.

[frieshoo]

It's really not a miracle that Walker can physically stand between first base and second base. If you're saying it's a miracle that Walker can play an even marginally adequate 2B, I think you're wrong; he is nowhere close to being adequate at 2B. He's a 3B playing out of position, and it shows. He simply does not have the range for the middle infield. I don't understand why anyone would respond to the fact that a 3B is playing 2B poorly by saying he should get better or that his poor play is adequate. It seems like the only reasonable response would be to move the 3B back to 3B and get a real 2B.

Grow the infield grass higher.   Worked for Ripken and Sanberg.

It might help Cutch, and Tabata at the plate.

Seriously,  He's never played 2b before this season, and never had any true training reps at the position.  I'm willing to give him a chance.  He's one of the better athletes on the team, and he seems like a smart kid.   I think he will be an 'adequate' player defensively, and a plus player offensively.