What I have written is that to the best of anyone's knowledge he has not broken any laws (with the exception of giving a minor alcohol, and the bar is also complicit in that). To the best of our knowledge, he has never sexually assaulted anyone.
I think, given all the evidence that's come out, there's a greater than 80% chance that Roethlisberger sexually assaulted this girl. The reality of how these things play out, though, is that even if it were 100% likely that he sexually assaulted her there would still be a good chance he'd beat a conviction in court, and the proceedings would only make the entire situation worse for the victim as she would be dragged through the mud by Ben's attorneys.
Personally, the most troubling aspect of this whole story, to me, is the behavior of the police. First you have Ben's bodyguards, who were off-duty police officers, allegedly dragging this girl into a secluded area and then physically restraining her friends from helping her once Roethlisberger started having sex with her. Then you have the local cop that the girls first reported the situation to. He tried to talk them out of it, and when they persisted he pretty much downplayed the entire thing, calling them a bunch of "b%ches" for having the audacity to report that their friend was raped. It's clear he didn't care whether Roethlisberger raped the girl or not, and he was rightfully fired after his actions came to light.
I don't think it is as high as 80% unless you only believe what the girl and her friends say and not what the statements from the others involved. The girl was so drunk she doesn't know what happened. She was apparently following Ben around that night. She was wearing a nametag that said she was 'Down to F###' and according to Colon pinched Ben. The another version is that the officer escorted the girl to the bathroom and no one kept the other girls out and in fact the one accused of that said he was at the bar at the time and not in the VIP room. Who can you believe?
The local cop acted improperly, but was undoubtedly influenced by the girl's drunken condition as well as Ben's celebrity. To say he didn't care if the girl had been raped is beyond any rational interpretation of events in my opinion. Also, I was under the impression he quit rather as you say fired.
