Interesting comps at The Hardball Times

[Bloop and a Blast]

Below, is a summary of the comp study on 8 sophmore players by The Harball Times. I'm also including the link to the entire article.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/eight-sophomores/

Eight position players made their big-league debuts in 2009 and collected at least 400 plate appearances. I thought it would be interesting to go back through history in search of analogous players so that we might get some sense of what to expect going forward from these eight.

The basic approach was to identify players who debuted at the same age and who put up similar numbers, then see how those players' careers progressed. We'll look at each of last year's debutantes and their analogs in descending order of OPS+.


Here's the excerpt on Cutch.



Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates, CF, age 22
493 PA, .286/.365/.471, 122 OPS+

Fewer 22-year-olds meet our criteria: seventy-three, to be precise, from Charlie Keller (.334/.447/.500, 143 OPS+ in 1939) to Pee-Wee Wanninger (.236/.256/.305, 43 OPS+ in 1925). Like Coghlan, McCutchen is eighth on our list (third among active players, behind Austin Kearns and Evan Longoria).

The most similar player to McCutchen here is an odd one. Some of their rookie numbers (BA, 2B, HR) are nearly identical, and the comp was a terrific player, but it's just that... well, McCutchen doesn't remind me at all of Will Clark:

Player    Year Pos  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ BB  K
McCutchen 2009  CF 493 .286 .365 .471 122  54 83
Clark     1986  1B 458 .287 .343 .444 121  34 76McCutchen exhibited more power and better plate discipline while playing a more difficult defensive position. Overall, he was even better than Clark, who retired with a .303/.384/.497 (137 OPS+) line and more than 2,100 hits. That's it, send McCutchen to Cooperstown now. Right?

Well, no. This is a fantastic start, but did I mention Austin Kearns?

Player    Year Pos  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ BB  K
McCutchen 2009  CF 493 .286 .365 .471 122  54 83
Kearns    2002  RF 435 .315 .407 .500 134  54 81Including players who came up before age 22 gives us a few more names, but none neccesarily a better fit than Clark. The closest are probably Paul Molitor, Grady Sizemore, and Gary Matthews Sr. For grins:

Player    Year Pos  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+ BB  K
McCutchen 2009  CF 493 .286 .365 .471 122  54  83
Molitor   1979  2B 645 .322 .372 .469 126  48  48
Sizemore  2005  CF 706 .289 .348 .484 123  52 132
Matthews  1973  LF 605 .300 .367 .444 120  58  83Molitor had a full season under his belt before age 22, which... what a difference a year makes. Regardless, McCutchen is keeping nice company at such a young age.

[Thunder]

I'd take Clark's career numbers...or Molitor's or Sizemore's. Even Sarge put up some decent numbers. Cutch certainly doesn't have the body type that Kearns did/does...and if I recall correctly...Kearns had injury issues as well.

That's some pretty decent company...but hopefully...Cutch continues to improve from here.

[CAfan]

I wouldn't be upset with any of those guys.  Clark + speed.  Molitor. Sizemore. Matthews.  Kearns never developed, but man did he look good starting out his career.

[Bloop and a Blast]

He reminds me of Ellis Burks when he first came up. Burks was such a fluid CF when he came up. He also had good speed. He wasn't nearly as fast as Cutch was, but he was a very good baserunner early on and an OBP machine. He also didn't have huge power when he came up, but when his speed started to go and his body filled out, he really started to become a smart and powerful hitter. If Cutch fills out like that, I would take an Ellis Burks type career out of him any day.

[5-ish Finkle]

I think he'll wind up "a superior version of Marquis Grissom" as a worst case scenario.  Better plate awareness/approach, potentially more power, same great speed and defense.  His ceiling's higher, but that wouldn't exactly be a terrible floor either.

Burks isn't a bad comp either, but his power came on pretty late in his career.