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Author Topic: Here's a reason Aki was better to sign than Kelly Johnson  (Read 4572 times)
RJReynolds
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« Reply #150 on: March 10, 2010, 01:37:30 PM »

But it will cost 5 mil or whatever portion we are on the hook for.  Why not just use that 5 mil and put it up top of the draft budget and sign more picks that may have the chance of helping someday than hoping to God against all odds that Iwamura puts togther an uninjured , productive year to begin with.

This is such a popular thing to say, and has been refuted over and over again.  The Pirates budgets do not work that way.  Perhaps the money could be left available for a special signing like they had attempted with the Latin player I won't name here.  But we have been told over and over that the budgets are separate.  Of course they don't have to be, but that is the way we are informed that this club works.  Not to mention the fact that there is a sort of consensus ceiling on draft budgets as to what provides the best return on the money.  If you don't believe that, they why don't the big money clubs spend many more millions on the draft than the lower income clubs?  I'm no economist, but there must be a point of diminishing returns.  

That being said, what if they did put that money into draft picks?  How much of that money will end up being wasted because the players never pan out?  No one knows so you just put more of your funds at risk by using them in the draft, and in addition you have put a lesser team on the ML playing field which is what keeps fans interested in the club.  Iwamura fills a need at this point in time on the major league club.  That is why they traded for him, whether he is here for the full year, half the year because of trade (at which point money may be recouped) or signed for longer term.  

I must admit that this I just do not understand in the slightest. I get what you have been saying regarding the fact that the Pirates may not be able to spend more than they have because of the MLB tisk tisk they have gotten. That's fine. But then you say that even if they were allowed by MLB to spend the money on draft picks that it may not be worth it because they may not pan out? Really? Scrap, we are talking about $5 mil. That money is being paid to a player who is here on a one year contract. By very definition, he will have no value to this team in 2011. Yet even still, spending money ($5 mil worth) on additional draft signees might not work either so let's just give the money to Aki? This thought process frustrates me thoroughly.

RJR
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CAfan
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« Reply #151 on: March 10, 2010, 01:56:00 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?

Aki is a good player. I won't advertise him as more, but this team needs some good players.  If we look like we are taking a dive with NO effort whatsoever the few casual fans that do attend will thin out even more, there is lost revenue.  If we put a team out there without a viable defense we are hurting our pitchers development.  The opportunity to have a guy who is an ideal #2 hitter, can help guys like McCutchen and Jones.

And not to be too crazy, but this time could actually surprise and have a good year. I don't see us winning the division, but I am willing to hold our staff up to some of the others. If Jones and McCutch perform and Doumit is healthy, and 1 or 2 other guys make some strides, we might be a productive team.

So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.
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SammyKhalifa
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« Reply #152 on: March 10, 2010, 01:58:56 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
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MaineBucs
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« Reply #153 on: March 10, 2010, 02:04:25 PM »

I noted this tidbit from a great article on the MLB Trade Rumors site about John Daniels, GM of the Rangers.

''They didn't get approval from MLB to sign Purke at a number to his liking, but they got Scheppers done.'

There were quite a few rumors out of Pittsburgh last year that MLB held up approval of their offers to several draft choices and that these players chose not to sign.  If the above statement is accurate out of the Rangers organization, it appears that MLB is playing a fairly heavy hand regarding the amount that a team can commit to the draft or to players in the draft.

As such, it appears that the Pirates cannot simply decide to spend as much as they choose on the draft.  MLB has established a formal or informal limit.  In short, coupled with the Pirate's current low payroll, the signing of Aki does not appear to have blocked any player or hamstrung any of their needs to invest in future talent.  
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« Reply #154 on: March 10, 2010, 02:05:04 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
It depends on who is signed and why.  I think the Nationals wasted money on Kennedy, IRod and Wang.  Big time waste of money there.  I know Marquis will be their ace but I don't like his signing either.  I still like the Adam Dunn signing.

The main difference between the Nationals and the Pirates is that the Nationals haven't shown they won't spend what needs to be spent.  The Pirates have shown that.  Sanchez was an over draft because they wanted to use saving there to spend on other picks.  The Nationals spent on veterans, signed Strasburg and Storen at the same time, and drafted the players they felt were best in each round of the draft.  In short, you won't here the Nationals say they will save money here to spend it there.  They are spending it everywhere.
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« Reply #155 on: March 10, 2010, 02:20:08 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
It depends on who is signed and why.  I think the Nationals wasted money on Kennedy, IRod and Wang.  Big time waste of money there.  I know Marquis will be their ace but I don't like his signing either.  I still like the Adam Dunn signing.

The main difference between the Nationals and the Pirates is that the Nationals haven't shown they won't spend what needs to be spent.  The Pirates have shown that.  Sanchez was an over draft because they wanted to use saving there to spend on other picks.  The Nationals spent on veterans, signed Strasburg and Storen at the same time, and drafted the players they felt were best in each round of the draft.  In short, you won't here the Nationals say they will save money here to spend it there.  They are spending it everywhere.

Wasn't it Rizzo that said he never wanted to have the #1 pick again unless they fixed the bonus structure in MLB? Based on that comment, I took it as them passing on Harper and Taillon and going with a strategy similar to what we did last year.
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But as for being a safe pick, I don't think there is such a thing. When someone gets to the big leagues and performs, then I'll say he's a safe pick. Until that happens, there's no such thing. -Bruce Seid- Brewers Director of Scouting
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« Reply #156 on: March 10, 2010, 02:39:10 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
It depends on who is signed and why.  I think the Nationals wasted money on Kennedy, IRod and Wang.  Big time waste of money there.  I know Marquis will be their ace but I don't like his signing either.  I still like the Adam Dunn signing.

The main difference between the Nationals and the Pirates is that the Nationals haven't shown they won't spend what needs to be spent.  The Pirates have shown that.  Sanchez was an over draft because they wanted to use saving there to spend on other picks.  The Nationals spent on veterans, signed Strasburg and Storen at the same time, and drafted the players they felt were best in each round of the draft.  In short, you won't here the Nationals say they will save money here to spend it there.  They are spending it everywhere.

Wasn't it Rizzo that said he never wanted to have the #1 pick again unless they fixed the bonus structure in MLB? Based on that comment, I took it as them passing on Harper and Taillon and going with a strategy similar to what we did last year.
I don't know if he said that or not.  I also don't know what relevance to this discussion that alleged quote has.  The fact is that he drafted and signed both Strasberg and Storen.
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« Reply #157 on: March 10, 2010, 02:50:32 PM »

I have yet to figure out exactly who Iwamura is blocking. If Friday or D'Arnaud or Mercer or Cunningham was already at AAA...then yes...maybe there would be an argument. The alternative is playing someone at 2B that hasn't played the position regularly (or even SS) at even the AAA level. Young is obviously not capable of playing decent 2B at any level...as the Dodgers had already moved him...and he showed no aptitude for the position last fall. LaRoche and Walker have not played there...and there are no indications that is occurring during spring training. There were no standout 2B available as FA's either.

Everyone is automatically assuming that Iwamura is here for only one year. I'm not convinced that is the case. Until/unless one of the recent draftees shows he's ready for the majors at 2B...there's an opening there. I would not rule out the possibility that if Iwamura performs well...they look at a multi-year extension toward the end of the season. If someone in the minors busts out...then...yes you can trade him for a more significant piece. Until then...you have a league average or above 2B already in place at a fairly reasonable price. FC and NH have been quoted numerous times that the budget for the draft has NOTHING to do with where the major league payroll stands. If they are true to their word...the signing of Iwamura has NO effect on the funding availability for the 2010 draft.
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Bloop and a Blast
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« Reply #158 on: March 10, 2010, 02:52:57 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
It depends on who is signed and why.  I think the Nationals wasted money on Kennedy, IRod and Wang.  Big time waste of money there.  I know Marquis will be their ace but I don't like his signing either.  I still like the Adam Dunn signing.

The main difference between the Nationals and the Pirates is that the Nationals haven't shown they won't spend what needs to be spent.  The Pirates have shown that.  Sanchez was an over draft because they wanted to use saving there to spend on other picks.  The Nationals spent on veterans, signed Strasburg and Storen at the same time, and drafted the players they felt were best in each round of the draft.  In short, you won't here the Nationals say they will save money here to spend it there.  They are spending it everywhere.

Wasn't it Rizzo that said he never wanted to have the #1 pick again unless they fixed the bonus structure in MLB? Based on that comment, I took it as them passing on Harper and Taillon and going with a strategy similar to what we did last year.
I don't know if he said that or not.  I also don't know what relevance to this discussion that alleged quote has.  The fact is that he drafted and signed both Strasberg and Storen.

I think he was essentially saying that Strasburg had to be drafted and signed, but that until MLB fixed the bonus structure, he doesn't ever want to be put in a position to have to pay that much of a premium on any player again. You're right, Storen is irrelevant to that discussion, because he was only a $1.6M signing. I simply thought that was a glimpse into the future of how he drafts and an indication he will avoid Harper, who is currently being tabbed of the best talent in the draft. I know you said you're on speaking terms with him and thoght you could offer some insight to that comment. Although maybe you already did when you indicated he said to you that they will be taking Harper and money is not a factor in their decisions?
« Last Edit: March 10, 2010, 02:54:52 PM by Bloop and a Blast » Logged

But as for being a safe pick, I don't think there is such a thing. When someone gets to the big leagues and performs, then I'll say he's a safe pick. Until that happens, there's no such thing. -Bruce Seid- Brewers Director of Scouting
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« Reply #159 on: March 10, 2010, 03:40:35 PM »

 let me see if I can make this clear for you RJ.  What I was attempting to say is that you can spend 5M on a player that will contribute in a positive manner on the ML club, or 5M on a few draftees that may never play on the club.  That 5M for draftees is above and beyond what clubs have shown to be the optimum pool of cash used for draftees.  I say there is a ceiling because if there weren't, teams that are loaded would spend huge amounts more on the draft than the poorer clubs.  So if you spend more on the draft than that amount, the money is being spent in an even riskier way than the rest of the draft money.  There is only so much talent available in one draft so in essence you would be spending more money on players that are less likely to ever make the MLs.  That is what I meant by there being a diminishing return on the draft investment. 

If we were talking about a Pirates team that couldn't afford to spend the money on Iwamura's salary I might have a different opinion, but that is not the case here.  Paying Aki isn't keeping anyone of greater value off this team.  Paying Aki is not taking money away from signing better players in 2010. 
« Last Edit: March 10, 2010, 03:44:18 PM by scrapiron » Logged

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RJReynolds
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« Reply #160 on: March 10, 2010, 03:57:50 PM »

let me see if I can make this clear for you RJ.  What I was attempting to say is that you can spend 5M on a player that will contribute in a positive manner on the ML club, or 5M on a few draftees that may never play on the club.  That 5M for draftees is above and beyond what clubs have shown to be the optimum pool of cash used for draftees.  I say there is a ceiling because if there weren't, teams that are loaded would spend huge amounts more on the draft than the poorer clubs.  So if you spend more on the draft than that amount, the money is being spent in an even riskier way than the rest of the draft money.  There is only so much talent available in one draft so in essence you would be spending more money on players that are less likely to ever make the MLs.  That is what I meant by there being a diminishing return on the draft investment. 

If we were talking about a Pirates team that couldn't afford to spend the money on Iwamura's salary I might have a different opinion, but that is not the case here.  Paying Aki isn't keeping anyone of greater value off this team.  Paying Aki is not taking money away from signing better players in 2010. 

I'd like to hope that you are right about the money being there to spend. It has been a criticism of mine for as long as I can remember...that they seem to save money all over the place and never spend it when warranted. It's just my feeling...and again we just differ here...that giving Aki $5 mil to play here in 2010 does the 2011 team no good whatsoever. Nor the 2012, 2013, etc... incarnations of the PBC. There is a tangible chance, however, that an extra signed draftee/international signee (or three or four) that the $5 mil was used for COULD help in a future year or years. I would rather spend the money for the chance to have a better future than spend on on the chance of having 3-4 extra wins in 2010 by having Iwamura play for us.

RJR
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« Reply #161 on: March 10, 2010, 04:02:55 PM »

This may get drowned out in this dogpile of a thread, but just for clarification the Nationals did NOT spend $15+M in a signing bonus on Strasburg.  That is the total value of his contract.

The deal breaks down as:
$7.5M bonus in three installments ($2.5M at signing, $2.5M in January 2010, $2.5M in Jan 11)
$2M salary in 2010
$2.5M salary in 2011
$3M salary in 2012
There was also an extra $100K as a prorated portion of his MLB-min salary in 2009, which is a new one for me.

So when talking about draft spending with the Nats last year, just keep in mind that Strasburg is more of a $7.5M signing bonus, just like Alvarez was $6.2M for us.
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RJReynolds
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« Reply #162 on: March 10, 2010, 04:06:01 PM »

I have yet to figure out exactly who Iwamura is blocking. If Friday or D'Arnaud or Mercer or Cunningham was already at AAA...then yes...maybe there would be an argument. The alternative is playing someone at 2B that hasn't played the position regularly (or even SS) at even the AAA level. Young is obviously not capable of playing decent 2B at any level...as the Dodgers had already moved him...and he showed no aptitude for the position last fall. LaRoche and Walker have not played there...and there are no indications that is occurring during spring training. There were no standout 2B available as FA's either.

Everyone is automatically assuming that Iwamura is here for only one year. I'm not convinced that is the case. Until/unless one of the recent draftees shows he's ready for the majors at 2B...there's an opening there. I would not rule out the possibility that if Iwamura performs well...they look at a multi-year extension toward the end of the season. If someone in the minors busts out...then...yes you can trade him for a more significant piece. Until then...you have a league average or above 2B already in place at a fairly reasonable price. FC and NH have been quoted numerous times that the budget for the draft has NOTHING to do with where the major league payroll stands. If they are true to their word...the signing of Iwamura has NO effect on the funding availability for the 2010 draft.

I understand that he is not blocking anyone. That never has been my point.

Iwamura is under a one year contract. As such, his services with his current club will expire at the end of the 2010 season. In my more perfect world, Aki would have played 2010 for someone else. This would accomplish 3 things:

1. We could still evaluate his performance and see if he is someone we would like to sign for 2011 and beyond.
2. We would not have to pay him the $5 mil and (theoretically) spend that money on individuals who have a chance to help in 2011 and beyond.
3. We would then have the ability to evaluate the in house options that we currently have. Let D Young start the year there. Does he play like the Sept 2009 version? Then it's pretty much a done deal as to what kind of starter he is or is not. June rolls around and Laroche gets a chance to move to 2B as Pedro gets the call. Again, we can see just what we have in terms of a player who could be a large part of our 2011 team and beyond instead of trade fodder. We could also get Walker at bats at AAA and innings in the field at 2B to see if that dog can hunt (or hit).

So to me, the fact that we can sign him to an extension has no bearing on the issue. We could sign him as a free agent at the end of the year and never have to pay him a dime in 2010. That way we could evaluate the in house options for the position once and for all, spend the money more wisely (in the long term scheme of things) and still sign him in 2011 should all else fail with regard to Young/Laroche/Walker in 2010.

RJR
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« Reply #163 on: March 10, 2010, 04:22:14 PM »

I guess i think it is short sighted to say Aki adds no value to the team. Do no players add value to the team, should we just sit this year out and wait for next year?


So, I wont discount a players value because it doesn't automatically equate to a pennant.

Yeah, I guess that's my thought too.  Is every team that doesn't win the world series "wasting" money by signing players? 
True. But WE are spending 1/7 of our payroll on an average at best, oft injured middle infielder.  The same player that only took us a cruddy reliever to get.
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7Springs
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« Reply #164 on: March 10, 2010, 04:25:22 PM »

I noted this tidbit from a great article on the MLB Trade Rumors site about John Daniels, GM of the Rangers.

''They didn't get approval from MLB to sign Purke at a number to his liking, but they got Scheppers done.'

There were quite a few rumors out of Pittsburgh last year that MLB held up approval of their offers to several draft choices and that these players chose not to sign.  If the above statement is accurate out of the Rangers organization, it appears that MLB is playing a fairly heavy hand regarding the amount that a team can commit to the draft or to players in the draft.

As such, it appears that the Pirates cannot simply decide to spend as much as they choose on the draft.  MLB has established a formal or informal limit.  In short, coupled with the Pirate's current low payroll, the signing of Aki does not appear to have blocked any player or hamstrung any of their needs to invest in future talent.  

Its true as to the money being spent on A prospect.  Considering we didn't sign all of them, I'd say we could spend that 5 mil on the draft...legally. 

And I hate the excuse that one team budget is different from the other.  Its complete lunacy to believe that.
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