Draft update

[BuccoFla]

35 minute Baseball America draft podcast from May 14th. It is free to listen to on their site.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/media/podcasts/

[BuccoFla]

Poster on another Pirates forum summarized what Huntington said about Taillon. All credit to the original poster.
http://www.pittsburghsportstavern.com/forum/showthread.php/4659-Huntington-on-Taillon


"He's one of the guys in our mix. Tallion has pure power stuff, but I was in Cleveland when Paul Shuey, on a scale of 20 to 80, had three 80s. A fastball that was 95-98, a breaking ball that was just devastating, and a split finger that was one of the best in the game, and he couldn't close. He couldn't close because he couldn't command it. When you watch Tallion you can give him two now plus breaking balls, you can give him a 95-97 fastball, which on our scale is a 70 to an 80 fastball, so you can give him 3 now plus pitches, and then you watch a 5 foot 6 sophomore stand in there and swing like he's hitting off a tee and you wonder about it. We've got some concerns with Tallion, and as we talked about last year when we talked about some of the high school pitching; did we think they were Beckett? Did we think they were Greinke? Or you know, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, those are 4 of the 21 I think it was at the time I went back and researched elite level high school pitchers who were taken early in the draft. Most of them are out of the game, they didn't even get to AA, they just blew out before then. So now we have to look at the body, we have to look at the delivery, we have to look at the arm action, the stress on the arm. Tallion's definitely in our mix, but to sit here and say that we're ready to commit to him at 2 is a bit premature. We've got a lot more work that we need to do.

[agent00]

Interesting comments. And I can see where he's coming from. But sometimes you just have to take a risk. People always say, well what if he doesn't work out. Well, what if he does? You then have a legitimate ace in your rotation under control for 6-7 years. I just think they should take the risk with Taillon.

[gamecckfn]

If they end up wanting to take a pitcher, I would hope it is Taillon, I am not excited about any of the other pitchers.

[mouse]

It's true we need pitchers but we also need position players. There is a better chance a position player we take will be good at the ML level than there is that a pitcher would be. This is a chance to get someone who can both field a position and hit the ball, with a reasonable likelihood he will make it. Go with the position player.

[CentralCABucsFan]

I've always wanted to take a look at the pitchers considered #1's and research exactly where they came from.  I never seem to find the time, so maybe someone with time on their hands could do this.

I have a feeling that they don't come from guys like Taillon.  I would guess they are guys that were decent pitchers that found something extra during their development, like some extra mph or movement on the fastball, or a plus secondary pitch.  Or maybe they are guys that just learn to be consistant.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of them really struggled at one point and were considered #3 pitchers.

My point (that I can't back up with data) is that I don't beleive drafting a pitcher in the top 5 or 10 overall is the best way to obtain a #1.

[MAL]

I'm going to continue to beat this drum.  The Pirates have no, none, zero impact bats below the AAA level other than maybe Marte but the jury is still out on him.  They have to draft an advanced college bat at #1.  Be it Cox, Brentz, Choice or (to a lesser degree because he is a catcher) Grandal.   

[navajo]

I'm going to continue to beat this drum.  The Pirates have no, none, zero impact bats below the AAA level other than maybe Marte but the jury is still out on him.  They have to draft an advanced college bat at #1.  Be it Cox, Brentz, Choice or (to a lesser degree because he is a catcher) Grandal.  

I could not have said it better. I think that just as last years draft focused on an upgrade of arms, this years will shift to position players.

[gnarburger]

I've always wanted to take a look at the pitchers considered #1's and research exactly where they came from.  I never seem to find the time, so maybe someone with time on their hands could do this.

I have a feeling that they don't come from guys like Taillon.  I would guess they are guys that were decent pitchers that found something extra during their development, like some extra mph or movement on the fastball, or a plus secondary pitch.  Or maybe they are guys that just learn to be consistant.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of them really struggled at one point and were considered #3 pitchers.

My point (that I can't back up with data) is that I don't beleive drafting a pitcher in the top 5 or 10 overall is the best way to obtain a #1.

People have a lot of different definitions of what a #1 pitcher is, but here are the top 15 pitchers based on WAR last year and where they came from:

Zack Greinke: 1st round out of high school (6th overall)
Justin Verlander: 1st round out of college (2nd overall)
Tim Lincecum: 1st round out of college (10th overall)
Roy Halladay: 1st round out of high school (17th overall)
Felix Hernandez: International Free Agency ($710,000 bonus)
Cliff Lee: 4th round out of college (105th overall)
Javier Vazquez: 5th round out of high school (140th overall)
Jon Lester: 2nd round out of high school (57th overall, $1 million bonus)
Dan Haren: 2nd round out of college (72nd overall)
CC Sabathia: 1st round out of high school (20th overall)
Adam Wainwright: 1st round out of high school (29th overall)
Ubaldo Jimenez: International Free Agency ($50,000 bonus)
Chris Carpenter: 1st round out of high school (15th overall)
Josh Johnson: 4th round out of high school (113th overall, $410,000 bonus)
Josh Beckett: 1st round out of high school (2nd overall)

They're mostly first rounders or guys like Lester who got the highest bonus of any second rounder and Felix who got a pretty big international bonus.  4 of them were top 10 picks.  Greinke and especially Beckett probably got similar amounts of hype out of high school as Taillon, though a lot of other guys have gotten that same hype and failed.  Most of the guys were projected as possible #1 and #2 starters at the time of their signing, although many of them weren't thought of that way until after getting a couple college seasons in.  Your best bet for getting one of these guys is to take them in the first round, but there's also a very good chance they don't do anything for you.

[Slizeezyc]

Check out this one from Chuck's Q&A on PG Plus today:

" Funny, Drew, I've been trying to pin down where the Pirates fall on Machado, too. As of now,  he is expected to become the first position-player chosen in a June 7 first round loaded with pitchers."

Oh Chuck.

[gamecckfn]

Haha, I guess he thinks Harper is a pitcher?  Must be looking up his brother.

[Woobie]

Check out this one from Chuck's Q&A on PG Plus today:

" Funny, Drew, I've been trying to pin down where the Pirates fall on Machado, too. As of now,  he is expected to become the first position-player chosen in a June 7 first round loaded with pitchers."

Oh Chuck.

Somewhere, omar stuck another needle into his Finder voodoo doll.

[dave3BA]

Wow, what an idiot.  It's one thing to say something like that without having a chance to think about it.  Publishing it in a Q&A is a whole different level of stupidity.

[81omar]

Check out this one from Chuck's Q&A on PG Plus today:

" Funny, Drew, I've been trying to pin down where the Pirates fall on Machado, too. As of now,  he is expected to become the first position-player chosen in a June 7 first round loaded with pitchers."

Oh Chuck.

Somewhere, omar stuck another needle into his Finder voodoo doll.

  Makes me want to apply for his job,I'm willing to bet I could submit my resume in crayon and get it.
Just a reminder,hes the one who is covering the draft for the PG,and some people are actually paying for that pleasure

[Cobra]

From today's Jason Stark espn column:

It's now a foregone conclusion the Washington Nationals are going to take junior college masher Bryce Harper with the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. But it's tough to find any clubs that are really thrilled with the group behind him at the top of Round 1.

The best arm in this draft, for instance, has been reputed to be Texas high school pitcher Jameson Taillon. But the review we heard on him this week from an official of one club, was: "Way overpriced."

"The night I saw him, there was no way I would have thought that kid should be the second pick in the country," the official said. "Here's a kid out there throwing 93 to 98 [miles per hour], and high school kids were whacking his fastball. I'll tell you. It was puzzling. This kid is 6-foot-6 with a big fastball, so you'd think there'd be some intimidation factor. But I didn't see any intimidation factor whatsoever. I think, with his arm, he's probably fixable. But I'd hate to pay a kid the money he's looking for with the thought that we've got to fix some things."